Albert –László Barabási is probably not well known in the world of search and that is not necessarily surprising as he is a physicist living in Boston, USA. But he is a physicist with a difference, who employs detailed scientific modelling to help understand social behavioural patterns.
In his research he maps the daily movements of millions of mobile phone users over many months. His latest study of a random 50,000 person subset has concluded that 93% of human mobility patterns are predictable. If he is right, and there is no reason to believe otherwise, that is a big number – in fact that is a huge number.
At this point he seems to be most excited about the prospect for using his ‘data burst’ analytics to model the spread of viruses or road traffic engineering. From a marketers point of view these individual and collective physical travel habits will be of interest, but people’s virtual travel habits are likely to prove even more interesting.
With Google and Facebook representing the most travelled sites online, the brands that can best analyse the ‘data bursts’ of search and social media activity will be best able to ensure that their products and services lie in wait as each consumer makes the next click with their mouse.
But better still, a little bit of reverse engineering will actually inform brands as to the moves that their competitors are most likely to make. This is where the art of pursuing means reversion or trend acceptance will force the data analysts to take a back seat as the business tacticians plot their course.
Blog post by James Kilpatrick, non-Executive Director of Reform
